TSV Hartberg 1-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Austria Lustenau travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 0.70 PPG, Austria Lustenau 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 1 for Austria Lustenau and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Austria Lustenau winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 50% and Austria Lustenau 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 64% | Austria Lustenau 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.59 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.883 / defence 1.240 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.750 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.772. Austria Lustenau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 TSV Hartberg games / 14 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 39%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Lustenau 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 50% | Austria Lustenau 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.59 / Austria Lustenau 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.883 / def 1.240 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.750 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.772 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Austria Lustenau xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 37% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
Record (1 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 0 | Austria Lustenau 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Austria Lustenau's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
37%
2.74
24%
4.12
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.24
1.65
Austria Lustenau xG
2.74
37%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.65 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 3W 1D 10L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 0.71 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L).
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.36 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 1D 10L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Lustenau away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
From 6 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 50%, Austria Lustenau at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for TSV Hartberg and 67% for Austria Lustenau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of TSV Hartberg's games and 83% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 67% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau finished level at 1-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.59 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.65 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.75 / defence 1.24, drawn from 36/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 39%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 64%, Austria Lustenau 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 0.71 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.