Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Merkur-Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sturm Graz have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur-Arena.

Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Rapid Vienna's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.50 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sturm Graz lead 4W to 5W over the last 10 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Rapid Vienna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).

Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 57% versus Rapid Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 38% | Rapid Vienna 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.74 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.846 / defence 0.892 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.076 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. Rapid Vienna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Sturm Graz games / 27 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 51% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 23%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Rapid Vienna 4.35. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 40% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.

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