Sturm Graz 3-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sturm Graz (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Vienna have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.70 for Austria Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 64% and Austria Vienna 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 64% | Austria Vienna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.34 xG and Austria Vienna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.003 / defence 0.852 | Austria Vienna attack 1.036 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.407. Data: 42 Sturm Graz games / 42 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 39% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 34%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Vienna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 50% | Austria Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 39% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Sturm Graz 1.34 / Austria Vienna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.003 / def 0.852 | Austria Vienna attack 1.036 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Sturm Graz 3 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 39% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.00x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.04x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.78
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.59
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.24 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 28W 14D 10L from 52 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 14L across 52 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.50 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 16W 5D 5L from 26 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 9W 9D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.50 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 28W 14D 10L in their last 52 games (1.88 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 20W 18D 14L in their last 52 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.04 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 62%, Austria Vienna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sturm Graz and 54% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sturm Graz's games and 58% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sturm Graz's matches and 54% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Vienna 3-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.34 xG and Austria Vienna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.00 / defence 0.85 against Austria Vienna attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 39% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 34%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 64%, Austria Vienna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.88 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.