SCR Altach 1-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 45%, yet in-form Austria Lustenau provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 9 as SCR Altach welcome Austria Lustenau to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Austria Lustenau's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Austria Lustenau have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against SCR Altach's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Austria Lustenau winning.
It is worth noting that Austria Lustenau have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 50% versus Austria Lustenau 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 53% | Austria Lustenau 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.32 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.834 / defence 0.996 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.726 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.339. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 22 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 45% | Draw 28% | Austria Lustenau 27%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Lustenau 3.70. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Lustenau (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 40% | Austria Lustenau 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 45% | Draw 28% | Austria Lustenau 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG SCR Altach 1.32 / Austria Lustenau 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.834 / def 0.996 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.726 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Austria Lustenau xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 45% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
Record (3 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 0 | Austria Lustenau 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.83x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.59
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.29
0.97
Austria Lustenau xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.97 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SCR Altach come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 8D 16L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Austria Lustenau carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SCR Altach's home form reads 3W 4D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.47 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Current Season
Austria Lustenau
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 6W 8D 16L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Lustenau's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.87 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
2
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 53%, Austria Lustenau 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SCR Altach) and 47% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 33% of games; Austria Lustenau in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 53% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SCR Altach's recent games and 47% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau finished level at 1-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.32 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.97 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 45% | Draw 28% | Austria Lustenau 27%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 53%, Austria Lustenau 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Lustenau arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.