Ried 2-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ried host Austria Vienna at josko ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 0.35 xG and Austria Vienna 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Austria Vienna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.362 / away 1.772. Data: 0 Ried games / 0 Austria Vienna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ried 5% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 69%. Fair-value odds: Ried 20.00 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Vienna 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (69%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Ried's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 5% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 27% | xG Ried 0.35 / Austria Vienna 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Austria Vienna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.362 / away 1.772 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.35
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Austria Vienna xG
27%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Ried vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Ried 2 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Ried vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Austria Vienna part of?
Ried vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 5% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 69% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Ried and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ried and Austria Vienna in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.85x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 20.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (18.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
5%
21.41
26%
3.87
69%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
18.6%
Away win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.35
Ried xG
Total xG
2.09
1.73
Austria Vienna xG
21.41
5%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.44
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.73
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
70%
1.42
Win to Nil
1%
121.03
49%
2.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 21.5 | 18.6 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Ried and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.35 expected goals for Ried and 1.73 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Pre-Season
Austria Vienna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Austria Vienna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Austria Vienna won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ried's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ried
0
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Vienna?
From 6 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Ried 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 0.35 xG and Austria Vienna 1.73 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Austria Vienna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 5% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 69%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Ried win, an outcome the model had rated at just 5% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.