Red Bull Salzburg 4-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
TSV Hartberg travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. TSV Hartberg's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Red Bull Salzburg's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Red Bull Salzburg: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for TSV Hartberg, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 TSV Hartberg — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Red Bull Salzburg and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 47% versus TSV Hartberg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 49% | TSV Hartberg 60%). Note also that TSV Hartberg surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Red Bull Salzburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.033 / defence 0.885 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.967 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.171. Data: built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 35 games and TSV Hartberg's last 36.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 48% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 25%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.06 | Draw 3.75 | TSV Hartberg 4.03. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Red Bull Salzburg 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Red Bull Salzburg 80% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 48% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.50 / TSV Hartberg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.033 / def 0.885 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.967 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg 4 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 48% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 35 games and TSV Hartberg's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
48%
2.06
27%
3.75
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.51
1.00
TSV Hartberg xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.00 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 25W 11D 9L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 15W 12D 18L from 45 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against TSV Hartberg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.19 PPG from their last 21 home games (14W 4D 3L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 6W 6D 9L from their last 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.36 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg in 62%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 11D 9L in their last 45 games (1.91 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 12D 18L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.19 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 TSV Hartberg.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 48%, TSV Hartberg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 67% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 67% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 67% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 81% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 4-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 48% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 25%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 49%, TSV Hartberg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.48 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.