Rapid Vienna 3-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Rapid Vienna have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 50% versus TSV Hartberg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 48% | TSV Hartberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 2.29 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.498 / defence 0.729 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.046 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.740 / away 1.239. Rapid Vienna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rapid Vienna's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Rapid Vienna games / 30 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 65% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 12%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | TSV Hartberg 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Rapid Vienna 20% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 65% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG Rapid Vienna 2.29 / TSV Hartberg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.498 / def 0.729 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.046 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.740 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Rapid Vienna 3 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 65% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (9 meetings): Rapid Vienna 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 4W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.50x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.40
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.23
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
10%
9.83
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
1%
82.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.94 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 40 games, going 18W 8D 14L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.32 PPG from 40 outings (13W 14D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.55 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 11W 1D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.35 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 8D 14L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 14D 13L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.79 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
4
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Rapid Vienna 3-1 TSV Hartberg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 42%, TSV Hartberg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Rapid Vienna) and 42% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 37%; TSV Hartberg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 47% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 42% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 3-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 2.29 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.50 / defence 0.73 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 65% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 12%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 48%, TSV Hartberg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.55 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.