Rapid Vienna 0-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt meet at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Allianz Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Austria Klagenfurt are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rapid Vienna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Austria Klagenfurt in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rapid Vienna 1W, Austria Klagenfurt 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Rapid Vienna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Rapid Vienna — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 68% and Austria Klagenfurt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 57% | Austria Klagenfurt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.51 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.871 / defence 0.992 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.202 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.767. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Rapid Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Austria Klagenfurt have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Rapid Vienna games / 34 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 27% | Draw 22% | Austria Klagenfurt 51%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | Austria Klagenfurt 1.96. Austria Klagenfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Klagenfurt are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 70% | Austria Klagenfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 27% | Draw 22% | Austria Klagenfurt 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.51 / Austria Klagenfurt 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.871 / def 0.992 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.202 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.767 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Austria Klagenfurt xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 27% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (1 meetings): Rapid Vienna 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Klagenfurt 0W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 0.87x the league average against Austria Klagenfurt's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (1.20x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 2.11.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
27%
3.69
22%
4.51
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.62
2.11
Austria Klagenfurt xG
3.69
27%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
12%
8.22
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
3%
30.33
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 2.11 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 13D 15L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.20 PPG from 44 outings (13W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.20 for Austria Klagenfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 9W 5D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.45 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 70%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 13W 14D 17L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.52 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
3
Draws
3
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Rapid Vienna 2-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Rapid Vienna, 76% for Austria Klagenfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Rapid Vienna and 67% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rapid Vienna's games and 76% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Klagenfurt edge out Rapid Vienna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Rapid Vienna 0-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.51 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 2.11 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rapid Vienna fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Austria Klagenfurt landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.20 / defence 1.25, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 27% | Draw 22% | Austria Klagenfurt 51%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 57%, Austria Klagenfurt 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.39 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.