Lask Linz 3-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Lask Linz welcome Wolfsberger AC to Raiffeisen Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Wolfsberger AC, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for Lask Linz.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wolfsberger AC have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 53% versus Wolfsberger AC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 57% | Wolfsberger AC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.049 / defence 1.165 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.923 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.202. Data: 43 Lask Linz games / 43 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 30%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Wolfsberger AC lead the H2H ledger, but Lask Linz carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 40% | Wolfsberger AC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Lask Linz 1.62 / Wolfsberger AC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.049 / def 1.165 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.923 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Lask Linz 3 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 44% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (8 meetings): Lask Linz 2W | Draws 0 | Wolfsberger AC 6W.
What form are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.05x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.89
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.91
1.29
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.29 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 27W 10D 16L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 23W 12D 18L from 53 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.72 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.92 PPG from 26 outings (15W 5D 6L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 6D 9L from 26 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.70 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 27W 10D 16L in their last 53 games (1.72 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 12D 18L in their last 53 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.92 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lask Linz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lask Linz
0
Draws
6
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 1-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 46%, Wolfsberger AC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lask Linz) and 58% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Lask Linz's matches and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 1.17 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 44% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 30%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 57%, Wolfsberger AC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.72 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.