Lask Linz 2-2 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lask Linz face Austria Klagenfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Austria Klagenfurt travel to Raiffeisen Arena to take on Lask Linz in Bundesliga (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Lask Linz have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Klagenfurt stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.80 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Lask Linz have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Lask Linz 3–1 Austria Klagenfurt — a Lask Linz win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 59% versus Austria Klagenfurt 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 43% | Austria Klagenfurt 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.35 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.062 / defence 0.748 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.045 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.229. Lask Linz have a tight defence (rating 0.748), which is pulling Austria Klagenfurt's projected output down. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 39 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 39.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 45% | Draw 29% | Austria Klagenfurt 26%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.21 | Draw 3.48 | Austria Klagenfurt 3.84. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 30% (last 10 home games) | Austria Klagenfurt 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 45% | Draw 29% | Austria Klagenfurt 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Lask Linz 1.35 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.062 / def 0.748 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.045 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Austria Klagenfurt xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Lask Linz 2 - 2 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 45% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 39 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.48
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.31
0.96
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
7%
14.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.96 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 23W 17D 9L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 17W 13D 19L from 49 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Lask Linz are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Klagenfurt.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 2.08 PPG from their last 24 home games (15W 5D 4L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 10W 5D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.39 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs Austria Klagenfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 23W 17D 9L in their last 49 games (1.76 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.08 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2025, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 6-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Lask Linz
2
Draws
0
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 8, Austria Klagenfurt have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Lask Linz 6-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 54%, Austria Klagenfurt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Lask Linz and 79% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lask Linz's games and 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lask Linz's matches and 79% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 79% of Austria Klagenfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt finished level at 2-2 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.35 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.96 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.06 / defence 0.75 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 45% | Draw 29% | Austria Klagenfurt 26%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 43%, Austria Klagenfurt 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.