Lask Linz 3-1 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Admira Wacker travel to Raiffeisen Arena to take on Lask Linz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 1W 4D 3L from 8 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.88 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's home record at Raiffeisen Arena: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Bundesliga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Admira Wacker have recorded 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 0.88 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.12 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Admira Wacker trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 62% and Admira Wacker 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lask Linz 12% | Admira Wacker 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.10 xG and Admira Wacker 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.745 / defence 1.251 | Admira Wacker attack 0.750 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.363. Lask Linz's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Admira Wacker bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Lask Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Lask Linz games / 8 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 28% | Draw 35% | Admira Wacker 36%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Admira Wacker 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Admira Wacker as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Admira Wacker offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 75% | Admira Wacker 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 28% | Draw 35% | Admira Wacker 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Lask Linz 1.10 / Admira Wacker 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.745 / def 1.251 | Admira Wacker attack 0.750 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Admira Wacker xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker kick off?
Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Lask Linz 3 - 1 Admira Wacker.
Where is Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker part of?
Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 28% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lask Linz and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Admira Wacker?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Admira Wacker in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Admira Wacker's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
28%
3.56
35%
2.82
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.38
1.28
Admira Wacker xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.28 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lask Linz come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 4D 3L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Admira Wacker sit at 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 0.88 PPG, Admira Wacker on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lask Linz's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Admira Wacker have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Admira Wacker come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lask Linz are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Admira Wacker in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Admira Wacker
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Admira Wacker away?
Admira Wacker's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 0.50 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lask Linz and Admira Wacker runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Lask Linz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lask Linz
1
Draws
0
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 3, Admira Wacker have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Lask Linz 3-1 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Admira Wacker?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lask Linz tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lask Linz at 75%, Admira Wacker at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Lask Linz) and 75% (Admira Wacker).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lask Linz's games and 75% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Lask Linz's recent games and 75% of Admira Wacker's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Admira Wacker.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Admira Wacker 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.10 xG and Admira Wacker 1.28 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against Admira Wacker attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 28% | Draw 35% | Admira Wacker 36%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 12%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 0.88 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.