Austria Vienna 1-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Austria Vienna at Generali Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena.
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Austria Vienna. A 0.90 PPG lead over Rapid Vienna (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Austria Vienna lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Rapid Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 44% versus Rapid Vienna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 48% | Rapid Vienna 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.66 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.025 / defence 0.840 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.933 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 51% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 19%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Rapid Vienna 5.26. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Rapid Vienna lead the H2H ledger, but Austria Vienna carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 40% | Rapid Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 51% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Austria Vienna 1.66 / Rapid Vienna 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.025 / def 0.840 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.933 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rapid Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Austria Vienna 1 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 51% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Vienna 1W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 3W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.02) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.93x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.33
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.60
0.94
Rapid Vienna xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
4%
28.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.94 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 31W 15D 15L from 61 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 21W 20D 20L across 61 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 17W 10D 3L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 8W 11D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.36 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 31W 15D 15L in their last 61 games (1.77 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 21W 20D 20L in their last 61 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.03 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 47%, Rapid Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Austria Vienna) and 40% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 27% of games; Rapid Vienna in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 50% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 40% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Austria Vienna 1-2 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.66 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.94 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 51% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 19%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Rapid Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 48%, Rapid Vienna 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Rapid Vienna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.