Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Grazer AK travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grazer AK away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Austria Vienna 1.00 PPG, Grazer AK 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Austria Vienna have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Grazer AK have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Austria Vienna winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Austria Vienna and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Grazer AK trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 54% versus Grazer AK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 57% | Grazer AK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.70 xG and Grazer AK 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.704 / defence 0.988 | Grazer AK attack 0.662 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. Austria Vienna's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Austria Vienna games / 27 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 59% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 15%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Grazer AK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 50% | Grazer AK 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 59% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Austria Vienna 1.70 / Grazer AK 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.704 / def 0.988 | Grazer AK attack 0.662 / def 1.480 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Grazer AK xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Generali Arena.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK part of?
Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 59% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Austria Vienna and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Grazer AK?
Record (4 meetings): Austria Vienna 3W | Draws 1 | Grazer AK 0W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Grazer AK in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (0.70) and Grazer AK's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.85
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.45
0.76
Grazer AK xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
3%
35.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.76 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 15W 5D 17L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Grazer AK's form line: 10W 11D 16L from 37 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.35 PPG, Grazer AK on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (6W 3D 9L).
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 3W 3D 12L from 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grazer AK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.19 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Grazer AK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 15W 5D 17L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Grazer AK away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.17 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
0
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Grazer AK?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 3, Grazer AK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Austria Vienna 2-1 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Grazer AK?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 44%, Grazer AK 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Austria Vienna) and 56% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna have failed to score in 39% of games; Grazer AK in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Grazer AK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 39% of Grazer AK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 56% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.