Austria Klagenfurt 0-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
28 Black Arena plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 28 Black Arena, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 28 Black Arena this season.
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Austria Klagenfurt, 1.20 for Wolfsberger AC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wolfsberger AC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Austria Klagenfurt 2W, Wolfsberger AC 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 4–3 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 69% and Wolfsberger AC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Klagenfurt 63% | Wolfsberger AC 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.43 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.947 / defence 1.091 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.120 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.436. Data: 39 Austria Klagenfurt games / 39 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 31% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 45%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Wolfsberger AC 2.22. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 60% | Wolfsberger AC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 31% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.43 / Wolfsberger AC 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.947 / def 1.091 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.120 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Wolfsberger AC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Klagenfurt 0 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 31% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 2W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 2W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (0.95) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.12x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
31%
3.19
23%
4.31
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
3.18
1.75
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.42
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.75 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 15D 20L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 19W 7D 23L from 49 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.31 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 10W 4D 10L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.59 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 71%.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 14W 15D 20L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 19W 7D 23L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.04 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 4-0 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
5
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Austria Klagenfurt, 67% for Wolfsberger AC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Austria Klagenfurt and 75% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 75% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-3 at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.43 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.75 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.12 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 31% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 45%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 63%, Wolfsberger AC 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.16 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.