Austria Klagenfurt 1-3 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna meet at Wörthersee Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Klagenfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt at Wörthersee Stadion this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rapid Vienna (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Austria Klagenfurt, 1.80 for Rapid Vienna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Klagenfurt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rapid Vienna in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Austria Klagenfurt half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 64% and Rapid Vienna 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 54% | Rapid Vienna 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.25 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.936 / defence 1.137 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.972 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.235. Data: 22 Austria Klagenfurt games / 22 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 34% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Rapid Vienna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 70% | Rapid Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 34% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.25 / Rapid Vienna 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.936 / def 1.137 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.972 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Rapid Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna?
Austria Klagenfurt 1 - 3 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 34% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 0.94x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.97x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
34%
2.92
26%
3.81
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.62
1.36
Rapid Vienna xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.36 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Klagenfurt come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 9D 6L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.41 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Austria Klagenfurt's home form reads 4W 6D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Klagenfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.59 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.64 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Austria Klagenfurt
3
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Rapid Vienna 2-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Austria Klagenfurt, 82% for Rapid Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 46% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 82% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 46% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Austria Klagenfurt 1-3 at Wörthersee Stadion, Championship Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.25 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.36 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rapid Vienna outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 34% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 39%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 54%, Rapid Vienna 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.36 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.