Admira Wacker 1-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Admira Wacker vs Austria Vienna encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Admira Wacker and Austria Vienna meet at BSFZ-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Admira Wacker's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Admira Wacker at BSFZ-Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Austria Vienna have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Austria Vienna arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Admira Wacker, 0 for Austria Vienna and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Admira Wacker goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Admira Wacker 57% versus Austria Vienna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 48% | Austria Vienna 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 0.79 xG and Austria Vienna 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.681 / defence 1.280 | Austria Vienna attack 0.856 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.294. Admira Wacker's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Admira Wacker games / 21 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 19% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 50%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Austria Vienna 2.00. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Admira Wacker 40% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights