Sharjah FC 1-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Sharjah FC welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Sharjah Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sharjah FC at 1.40 PPG versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sharjah FC have won 1, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 29% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 46% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.72 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.002 / defence 0.820 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.732 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.438. Data: 50 Sharjah FC games / 24 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 58% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 19%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 40% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 58% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Sharjah FC 1.72 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.002 / def 0.820 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.732 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Sharjah FC 1 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 58% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (1 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.00) and Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.22
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.58
0.86
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
3%
29.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.86 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC come into this having played 24 games, going 12W 6D 6L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dibba Al-Fujairah sit at 0.75 PPG from 24 outings (5W 3D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sharjah FC's home form reads 5W 3D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Dibba Al-Fujairah have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (3W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 12W 6D 6L in their last 24 games (1.75 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 5W 3D 16L in their last 24 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sharjah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Sharjah FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 4-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sharjah FC 33% BTTS, Dibba Al-Fujairah 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sharjah FC) and 42% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 33% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 42% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah finished level at 1-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.72 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.86 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.82 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.73 / defence 1.12, drawn from 50/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 58% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 19%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 46%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.