Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-2 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al Nasr travel to Rashid Stadium to take on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 11 May 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Rashid Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.30 PPG, Al Nasr 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 0 for Al Nasr and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Al Nasr in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59% versus Al Nasr 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 41% | Al Nasr 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.73 xG and Al Nasr 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.972 / defence 1.189 | Al Nasr attack 0.880 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.241. Al Nasr bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 22 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 29%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Al Nasr 3.45. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% | Al Nasr 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.73 / Al Nasr 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.972 / def 1.189 | Al Nasr attack 0.880 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al Nasr xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 2 Al Nasr.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 48% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr?
Record (1 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (0.97) and Al Nasr's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.24
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.03
1.30
Al Nasr xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
5%
19.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.30 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 9W 6D 7L from 22 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 9L across 22 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 1.50 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 8W 1D 2L from 11 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Nasr's away record stands at 3W 3D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.68 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Nasr away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.27 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
4
Draws
2
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, Al Nasr have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 73%, Al Nasr at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 82% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 64% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 82% of Al Nasr's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Nasr defy the odds to beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-2 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.73 xG and Al Nasr 1.30 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Al Nasr attack 0.88 / defence 1.37, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 29%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al Nasr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 41%, Al Nasr 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.50 PPG, Al Nasr 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.