Khorfakkan 2-1 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Khorfakkan face Hatta SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hatta SC travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan in Pro League (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Khorfakkan stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Khorfakkan's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.70 xG and Hatta SC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.903 / defence 1.102 | Hatta SC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.662. Data: built from Khorfakkan's last 26 games and Hatta SC's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 36%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.42 | Draw 4.32 | Hatta SC 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Khorfakkan 26 games, Hatta SC 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Khorfakkan 1.70 / Hatta SC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.903 / def 1.102 | Hatta SC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.662 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Hatta SC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC FAQs
What time does Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC?
Khorfakkan 2 - 1 Hatta SC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 41% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Khorfakkan and Hatta SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (0.90) and Hatta SC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatta SC's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Khorfakkan's last 26 games and Hatta SC's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
41%
2.42
23%
4.32
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.25
1.56
Hatta SC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.56 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Pre-Season
Hatta SC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Khorfakkan (Home) vs Hatta SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khorfakkan
Pre-Season
Hatta SC
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khorfakkan have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
0
Draws
0
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Khorfakkan vs Hatta SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Hatta SC?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Khorfakkan have won 3, Hatta SC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Hatta SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Hatta SC 1-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Hatta SC?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Hatta SC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Hatta SC 2-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.70 xG and Hatta SC 1.56 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Hatta SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 36%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.