Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Al Urooba at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 5 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Urooba — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Urooba have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khorfakkan at 0.60 PPG versus Al Urooba's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 1, Al Urooba 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2021, ended 4–1 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al Urooba in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 57% versus Al Urooba 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 71% | Al Urooba 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.65 xG and Al Urooba 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.176 / defence 1.107 | Al Urooba attack 0.684 / defence 1.766. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.253. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.766 — this is suppressing Khorfakkan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Khorfakkan games / 21 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 74% | Draw 15% | Al Urooba 11%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | Al Urooba 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Khorfakkan (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 74% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 40% | Al Urooba 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 74% | Draw 15% | Al Urooba 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 57% | xG Khorfakkan 2.65 / Al Urooba 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.176 / def 1.107 | Al Urooba attack 0.684 / def 1.766 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al Urooba xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 5 May 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Khorfakkan 1 - 1 Al Urooba.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 74% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Urooba?
Record (1 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 0 | Al Urooba 0W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Urooba in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Al Urooba's defensive record (1.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.65. The same calculation in reverse, Al Urooba's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
74%
1.36
15%
6.52
11%
9.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.60
0.95
Al Urooba xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.52
15%
Draw
9.04
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
7%
14.18
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
1%
128.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 0.95 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 3D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Urooba sit at 0.48 PPG from 21 outings (1W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khorfakkan's home form reads 5W 1D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Urooba have taken 0.20 points per game from 10 outings (0W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.90 scored and 2.48 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 1W 7D 13L in their last 21 (0.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Urooba away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.60 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Khorfakkan won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Urooba specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 3, Al Urooba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2025, when Khorfakkan 3-0 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Urooba?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 40%, Al Urooba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Khorfakkan and 60% for Al Urooba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Urooba in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 50% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Khorfakkan's matches and 60% of Al Urooba's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan and Al Urooba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Khorfakkan and Al Urooba drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.65 xG and Al Urooba 0.95 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Khorfakkan fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.18 / defence 1.11 against Al Urooba attack 0.68 / defence 1.77, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 74% | Draw 15% | Al Urooba 11%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 71%, Al Urooba 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Urooba's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Urooba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.