Khorfakkan 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 June 2024 at 15:20 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Khorfakkan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Khorfakkan lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 61% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 67% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.34 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.848 / defence 1.123 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.959 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.710. Data: 51 Khorfakkan games / 51 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 47%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.13. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 70% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 15:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Khorfakkan 1.34 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.848 / def 1.123 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.959 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.710 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:20 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Khorfakkan 2 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (5 meetings): Khorfakkan 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.96x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
26%
3.85
27%
3.75
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.18
1.84
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
16%
6.31
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
4%
24.27
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.84 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 12W 12D 27L from 51 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 23L across 51 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Khorfakkan against 1.14 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 10W 3D 12L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 8W 7D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.35 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 12W 12D 27L in their last 51 games (0.94 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 15W 13D 23L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.32 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 3, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 56%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Khorfakkan and 68% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 32% of games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Khorfakkan's games and 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Khorfakkan's matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan and Al-Ittihad Kalba finished level at 2-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.34 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.84 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 47%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 0.94 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.