Baniyas SC 0-4 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Baniyas SC welcome Sharjah FC to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC's home record at Baniyas Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Baniyas SC) versus 1.60 (Sharjah FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Sharjah FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Baniyas SC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Sharjah FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sharjah FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 55% versus Sharjah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 52% | Sharjah FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 0.94 xG and Sharjah FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.865 / defence 0.906 | Sharjah FC attack 1.227 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.427. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sharjah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Baniyas SC games / 40 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 22% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Sharjah FC 1.92. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 50% | Sharjah FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 22% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Baniyas SC 0.94 / Sharjah FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.865 / def 0.906 | Sharjah FC attack 1.227 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Sharjah FC xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Baniyas SC 0 - 4 Sharjah FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 22% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Record (3 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 3W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.86) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
22%
4.47
25%
3.97
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.59
Sharjah FC xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
5%
21.85
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.59 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 10D 17L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 2.08 PPG from 40 outings (25W 8D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 2.05 points per game from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.78 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 25W 8D 7L in their last 40 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.30 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 45%, Sharjah FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Baniyas SC) and 45% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 50%; Baniyas SC have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 40% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 45% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Baniyas SC 0-4 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 0.94 xG and Sharjah FC 1.59 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Sharjah FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.70, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 22% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 52%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 52%, Sharjah FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.