Baniyas SC 0-4 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Baniyas SC welcome Sharjah FC to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC's home record at Baniyas Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Baniyas SC are significantly better at Baniyas Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sharjah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Baniyas SC, 1 for Sharjah FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 52% versus Sharjah FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 48% | Sharjah FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.06 xG and Sharjah FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.926 / defence 1.019 | Sharjah FC attack 0.891 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.271. Data: 23 Baniyas SC games / 23 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 33% | Draw 29% | Sharjah FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Sharjah FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 50% | Sharjah FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 33% | Draw 29% | Sharjah FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Baniyas SC 1.06 / Sharjah FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.926 / def 1.019 | Sharjah FC attack 0.891 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Sharjah FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Baniyas SC 0 - 4 Sharjah FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 33% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.93) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
33%
3.03
29%
3.45
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.21
1.15
Sharjah FC xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.15 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 6D 9L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 2.09 PPG from 23 outings (15W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 1.64 points per game from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sharjah FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.70 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 15W 3D 5L in their last 23 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.55 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 46%, Sharjah FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Baniyas SC) and 46% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 36%; Baniyas SC have failed to score in 36% of games; Sharjah FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 46% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 46% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Baniyas SC 0-4 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.06 xG and Sharjah FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Sharjah FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 33% | Draw 29% | Sharjah FC 38%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 48%, Sharjah FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.