Baniyas SC 1-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baniyas SC host Khorfakkan at Baniyas Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Baniyas SC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baniyas SC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Baniyas Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baniyas SC 0.90 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baniyas SC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Khorfakkan in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Baniyas SC have won 2, Khorfakkan 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 59% versus Khorfakkan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 66% | Khorfakkan 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.000 / defence 0.856 | Khorfakkan attack 0.865 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.808. Data: 32 Baniyas SC games / 32 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 50% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 25%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Khorfakkan 4.00. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baniyas SC at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 60% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 50% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Baniyas SC 1.95 / Khorfakkan 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.000 / def 0.856 | Khorfakkan attack 0.865 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.808 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Baniyas SC 1 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 50% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan?
Record (4 meetings): Baniyas SC 2W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (1.00) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.02
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.28
1.34
Khorfakkan xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
4%
28.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.34 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 8W 7D 17L from 32 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 16L across 32 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 0.97 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 3W 4D 8L from 15 games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 5D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.22 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 8W 7D 17L in their last 32 games (0.97 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Baniyas SC's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.87 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2025, when Khorfakkan won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baniyas SC
2
Draws
5
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 60%, Khorfakkan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Baniyas SC and 60% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 33% of games; Khorfakkan in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Baniyas SC's games and 60% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Baniyas SC's matches and 60% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baniyas SC edge out Khorfakkan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Khorfakkan landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.00 / defence 0.86 against Khorfakkan attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 50% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 25%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 66%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.97 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.