Baniyas SC 2-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baniyas SC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Baniyas Stadium plays host to Baniyas SC versus Al-Dhafra in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baniyas SC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at Baniyas Stadium this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Baniyas SC's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baniyas SC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Dhafra half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 44% versus Al-Dhafra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 44% | Al-Dhafra 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.21 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.016 / defence 1.088 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.617 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.223. Data: 16 Baniyas SC games / 16 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 31% | Al-Dhafra 24%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Dhafra 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 38% | Al-Dhafra 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 31% | Al-Dhafra 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Baniyas SC 1.21 / Al-Dhafra 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.016 / def 1.088 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.617 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Al-Dhafra xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra?
Baniyas SC 2 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 44% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra?
Record (1 meetings): Baniyas SC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 0W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (1.02) and Al-Dhafra's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.62x) against Baniyas SC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.18
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.04
0.82
Al-Dhafra xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 0.82 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baniyas SC come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 4D 7L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Dhafra sit at 0.56 PPG from 16 outings (1W 6D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Baniyas SC's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Dhafra have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baniyas SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.69 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 6D 9L in their last 16 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baniyas SC won 5-0 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
0
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 5, Al-Dhafra have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Dhafra see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 38%, Al-Dhafra 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Baniyas SC and 25% for Al-Dhafra.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Dhafra in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 38% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 25% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al-Dhafra 2-0 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.21 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.82 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Dhafra landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.62 / defence 1.08, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 44% | Draw 31% | Al-Dhafra 24%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 44%, Al-Dhafra 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baniyas SC arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.