Al-Wasl FC 0-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Wasl FC host Ajman at Zabeel Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 12:40 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Wasl FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Wasl FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Al-Wasl FC have won 3, Ajman 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Ajman in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 64% versus Ajman 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 64% | Ajman 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.28 xG and Ajman 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.852 | Ajman attack 0.835 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.224. Data: 33 Al-Wasl FC games / 33 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 46% | Draw 29% | Ajman 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Ajman 4.00. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 70% | Ajman 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 12:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 46% | Draw 29% | Ajman 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.28 / Ajman 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.155 / def 0.852 | Ajman attack 0.835 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Ajman xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman kicked off at 12:40 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Al-Wasl FC 0 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 46% chance of winning, Ajman a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 3W | Draws 3 | Ajman 2W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Ajman (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.16x the league average against Ajman's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.48
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.15
0.87
Ajman xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.87 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 17W 9D 7L from 33 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 17L across 33 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 10W 4D 2L from 16 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 5W 2D 9L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.33 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 17W 9D 7L in their last 33 games (1.82 PPG), while Ajman have gone 12W 4D 17L in their last 33 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Ajman away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.12 PPG; Ajman away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ajman in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2024, when Al-Wasl FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
4
Draws
2
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Ajman have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Ajman 1-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Ajman?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ajman see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 69%, Ajman 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Wasl FC) and 38% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Ajman in 38%; Ajman in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 31% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 38% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Ajman in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Wasl FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Al-Wasl FC and Ajman drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.28 xG and Ajman 0.87 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ajman landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.85 against Ajman attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 46% | Draw 29% | Ajman 25%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 64%, Ajman 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajman's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.