Al Wahda FC 2-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Al Wahda FC welcome Al-Wasl FC to Al Nahyan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 0L across 7 games at Al Nahyan Stadium this term (2.14 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Wasl FC have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Al-Wasl FC and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Wahda FC in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 56% versus Al-Wasl FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 50% | Al-Wasl FC 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.37 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.153 / defence 1.011 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.841 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.223. Data: 16 Al Wahda FC games / 16 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Wasl FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Wasl FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 57% | Al-Wasl FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Wasl FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.37 / Al-Wasl FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.153 / def 1.011 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.841 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al-Wasl FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al Wahda FC 2 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 44% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wahda FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (1.15) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.47
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.04
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.04 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 6D 1L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Wasl FC sit at 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (5W 7D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 4W 3D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Wasl FC have taken 1.29 points per game from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.19 scored and 0.94 conceded. Al Wahda FC's scoring rate against Al-Wasl FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Al-Wasl FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 9W 6D 1L in their last 16 games (2.06 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.14 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Wasl FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2024, when Al Wahda FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Wahda FC
6
Draws
2
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 2, Al-Wasl FC have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-3 Al-Wasl FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 57%, Al-Wasl FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Wahda FC) and 43% (Al-Wasl FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al Wahda FC's games and 57% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 43% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Al-Wasl FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Wasl FC 2-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.37 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Wasl FC 28%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 50%, Al-Wasl FC 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.