Al Wahda FC 2-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC host Al Bataeh at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Al Nahyan Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Nahyan Stadium this season.
Al Bataeh — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.62 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al Wahda FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Al Bataeh and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 4–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 44% versus Al Bataeh 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wahda FC 56% | Al Bataeh 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 2.10 xG and Al Bataeh 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.137 / defence 1.062 | Al Bataeh attack 0.878 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.415. Data: 42 Al Wahda FC games / 16 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 55% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Al Bataeh 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 50% | Al Bataeh 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 55% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Wahda FC 2.10 / Al Bataeh 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.137 / def 1.062 | Al Bataeh attack 0.878 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al Bataeh xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC 2 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 55% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wahda FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Al Bataeh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.78
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.42
1.32
Al Bataeh xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
12%
8.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
3%
34.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.32 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 4D 3L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.94 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 0.94 PPG overall record — Al Bataeh travel well.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 games (1.94 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Bataeh's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 50%, Al Bataeh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Wahda FC and 62% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al Bataeh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 50% of Al Bataeh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 62% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Al Bataeh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al Bataeh 2-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.10 xG and Al Bataeh 1.32 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.06 against Al Bataeh attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 42/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 55% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 24%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 56%, Al Bataeh 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.