Al Urooba 1-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Dibba Stadium to take on Al Urooba. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 September 2024, 14:20 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 0W 0D 3L from 3 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Urooba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 2.70 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Urooba register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 80% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Urooba have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–3 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Urooba in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Urooba 67% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Urooba 67% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.24 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.707 / defence 1.449 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.162 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.842 / away 1.582. Al Urooba's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Al Urooba games / 29 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 16% | Draw 17% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 68%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 6.25 | Draw 5.88 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (68%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Urooba 67% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 16% | Draw 17% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Urooba 1.24 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.707 / def 1.449 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.162 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.842 / away 1.582 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
2.66
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 14:20 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Urooba 1 - 4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 16% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 68% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (2 meetings): Al Urooba 0W | Draws 1 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Urooba's attack at 0.71x the league average against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Urooba's defence, projects 2.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
16%
6.39
17%
5.99
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
0 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
3.90
2.66
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
6.39
16%
Home win
5.99
17%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
7%
14.32
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
1%
91.47
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al Urooba and 2.66 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Urooba's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Urooba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Urooba heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Urooba are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Urooba have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Urooba's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-0 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Urooba at 67%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Urooba and 100% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Urooba have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Urooba's games and 100% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Urooba's matches and 100% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al Urooba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Urooba 1-4 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.24 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.66 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 2.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.71 / defence 1.45 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 3/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 16% | Draw 17% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 68%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 67%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Urooba shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.