Al Nasr 0-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Al Nasr welcome Sharjah FC to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Nasr at Al Maktoum Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Maktoum Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Nasr 1.30 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al Nasr's 30% rate and Sharjah FC's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Nasr, 1 for Sharjah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Nasr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Nasr in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 46% versus Sharjah FC 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 46% | Sharjah FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.52 xG and Sharjah FC 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.928 / defence 0.998 | Sharjah FC attack 1.110 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.728. Data: 28 Al Nasr games / 28 Sharjah FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 31% | Draw 22% | Sharjah FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Sharjah FC 2.13. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 67% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. This conflicts with form data: Al Nasr 30% | Sharjah FC 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 31% | Draw 22% | Sharjah FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Nasr 1.52 / Sharjah FC 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.928 / def 0.998 | Sharjah FC attack 1.110 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.728 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Sharjah FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 14:20 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Al Nasr 0 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 31% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Nasr and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Sharjah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Nasr 2W | Draws 1 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Nasr's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
31%
3.23
22%
4.53
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.44
1.91
Sharjah FC xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
15%
6.78
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
5%
21.89
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.91 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Nasr come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 6D 15L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Nasr's home form reads 6W 2D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Al Nasr are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 1.93 points per game from 14 outings (8W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Nasr are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.68 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 7W 6D 15L in their last 28 games (0.96 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 13W 7D 8L in their last 28 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.43 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when Al Nasr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
2
Draws
4
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Nasr 36% BTTS, Sharjah FC 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Nasr) and 36% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sharjah FC in 50%; Sharjah FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 29% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Nasr's recent games and 36% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al Nasr 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Nasr 0-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.52 xG and Sharjah FC 1.91 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Nasr fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Sharjah FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 31% | Draw 22% | Sharjah FC 47%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 46%, Sharjah FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.