Al Nasr 2-1 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 85% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Al Urooba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Nasr and Al Urooba meet at Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al Nasr's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Nasr have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al Nasr are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Urooba (all games): 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Al Urooba's away record over their last 6 away games: 0W 0D 6L (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.17 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Al Nasr's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al Urooba's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Al Nasr edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2024, ended Al Nasr 5–1 Al Urooba — a Al Nasr win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Nasr — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 77%.
Al Urooba — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 77% and Al Urooba 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 85% | Al Urooba 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 3.14 xG and Al Urooba 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.216 / defence 0.989 | Al Urooba attack 0.480 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.421. Al Urooba's defence rating of 1.466 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Nasr's projected output up. Al Urooba's attack rating of 0.480 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 39 games and Al Urooba's last 13.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 85% | Draw 11% | Al Urooba 5%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 1.18 | Draw 9.43 | Al Urooba 21.55. The model has a clear lean to Al Nasr (85%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Nasr at 85% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Al Urooba's last 6 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Urooba 17% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 85% | Draw 11% | Al Urooba 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Al Nasr 3.14 / Al Urooba 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.216 / def 0.989 | Al Urooba attack 0.480 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (85%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.14
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Al Urooba xG
47%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Al Urooba FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Al Urooba kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al Urooba kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 31 January 2025 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al Urooba?
Al Nasr 2 - 1 Al Urooba.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al Urooba part of?
Al Nasr vs Al Urooba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 85% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 5% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Nasr and Al Urooba will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Al Nasr vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Nasr's attack at 1.22x the league average against Al Urooba's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 3.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Urooba's attack (0.48x) against Al Nasr's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 39 games and Al Urooba's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 4-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
85%
1.18
11%
9.43
5%
21.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
4 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.14
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.81
0.67
Al Urooba xG
1.18
85%
Home win
9.43
11%
Draw
21.55
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
4%
23.01
Win to Nil
43%
2.31
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Al Urooba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 3.14 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.67 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 85%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 7W 1D 5L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Al Urooba's form line: 1W 0D 12L from 13 games, 0.23 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 1.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Urooba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 2.67 PPG from their last 6 home games (5W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Al Nasr are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Urooba have gone 0W 0D 6L from their last 6 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.62 scored and 2.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Al Urooba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Al Urooba Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 7W 1D 5L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 1W 0D 12L in their last 13 (0.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al Urooba away?
Al Nasr's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 2.67 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Nasr have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Nasr won Al Nasr 5-0 Al Urooba on 26 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Nasr
1
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Al Urooba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al Urooba?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 3, Al Urooba have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al Urooba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2025: Al Nasr 2-1 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al Urooba?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 83%, Al Urooba 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Al Nasr and 67% for Al Urooba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 83% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Urooba in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Al Urooba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Al Urooba matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 17% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Nasr and Al Urooba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Al Nasr's matches and 67% of Al Urooba's.
Do Al Nasr and Al Urooba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 67% of Al Urooba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al Urooba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al Urooba 2-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 3.14 xG and Al Urooba 0.67 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Nasr fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.22 / defence 0.99 against Al Urooba attack 0.48 / defence 1.47, drawn from 39/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 85% | Draw 11% | Al Urooba 5%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 85%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 85%, Al Urooba 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Al Urooba's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Urooba (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.