Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Al-Ittihad Kalba take on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 1.25 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1W 3D 0L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 1L from 8 games (1.88 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrive in superior form — a 0.63 PPG advantage (1.88 vs 1.25) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 62% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.91 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.902 / defence 1.060 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.605 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.283. Data: 8 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 8 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Draw 39% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 75% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Draw 39% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 36% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.91 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.902 / def 1.060 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.605 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 33% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 28% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.90) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (0.60x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
39%
2.55
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
1.74
0.82
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 14.5 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0.82 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 4D 2L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 1W 3D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.25 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.50 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 5-1 on 11 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
6
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 75%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50%; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 25% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad Kalba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 0-0 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.91 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.82 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.60 / defence 0.95, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Draw 39% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.