Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Ain at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba host Al Ain at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Pro League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Ain — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's away record: 5W 2D 1L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Ain are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1 for Al Ain and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–4 with Al Ain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Al Ain in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% versus Al Ain 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 40% | Al Ain 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 xG and Al Ain 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.792 / defence 1.184 | Al Ain attack 1.167 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.183. Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 16 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 21% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 53%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Al Ain 1.89. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Ain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 62% | Al Ain 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 21% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 / Al Ain 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.792 / def 1.184 | Al Ain attack 1.167 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Al Ain xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 0 - 2 Al Ain.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 21% chance of winning, Al Ain a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 0 | Al Ain 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Al Ain (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al Ain's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Ain's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
21%
4.85
26%
3.85
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.56
1.64
Al Ain xG
4.85
21%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
24.88
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.64 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 4W 6D 5L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain's form line: 11W 3D 1L from 15 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Al Ain have gone 4W 2D 1L from 7 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.27 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Ain in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 11W 3D 1L in their last 15 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.29 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al Ain in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Ain go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2021, when Al Ain won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Ain specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
2
Draws
7
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, Al Ain have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 71%, Al Ain 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 43% (Al Ain).
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 43%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Ain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 43% of Al Ain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 43% of Al Ain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Ain tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 xG and Al Ain 1.64 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Al Ain attack 1.17 / defence 1.02, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 21% | Draw 26% | Al Ain 53%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 40%, Al Ain 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Ain's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.