Al Bataeh 1-3 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Nasr at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Bataeh welcome Al Nasr to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Bataeh have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Al Bataeh have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Nasr — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al Nasr have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Al Nasr's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Bataeh's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al Bataeh's games and 60% of Al Nasr's (from Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Nasr 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2023, ended Al Bataeh 2–0 Al Nasr — a Al Bataeh win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al Bataeh trading profile (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al Nasr trading profile (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 63% versus Al Nasr 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 70% | Al Nasr 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.57 xG and Al Nasr 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 1.087 / defence 1.033 | Al Nasr attack 1.082 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.768. Data: built from Al Bataeh's last 43 games and Al Nasr's last 45.

Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 31% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.22 | Draw 4.61 | Al Nasr 2.11. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Bataeh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Nasr 60% (last 10 away games).

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