Ajman 2-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 51%, yet in-form Al Bataeh provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ajman vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajman host Al Bataeh at Ajman Stadium in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Ajman — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ajman at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ajman are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al Bataeh have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Bataeh's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Bataeh are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Ajman's games and 60% of Al Bataeh's (from Ajman's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Ajman, 0 for Al Bataeh and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2024, ended Ajman 2–0 Al Bataeh — a Ajman win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ajman in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 62% and Al Bataeh 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 56% | Al Bataeh 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ajman surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Al Bataeh have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.77 xG and Al Bataeh 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.990 / defence 0.790 | Al Bataeh attack 0.836 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.848 / away 1.691. Ajman have a tight defence (rating 0.790), which is pulling Al Bataeh's projected output down. Data: built from Ajman's last 32 games and Al Bataeh's last 32.
Result probabilities: Ajman 51% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 22%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 1.97 | Draw 3.71 | Al Bataeh 4.50. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Bataeh (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ajman's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajman 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 51% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Ajman 1.77 / Al Bataeh 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.990 / def 0.790 | Al Bataeh attack 0.836 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.848 / away 1.691 • Poisson stance: Ajman (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al Bataeh xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajman vs Al Bataeh FAQs
What time does Ajman vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Ajman vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Ajman 2 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Ajman vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al Bataeh part of?
Ajman vs Al Bataeh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 51% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ajman and Al Bataeh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ajman vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ajman's last 32 games and Al Bataeh's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.71
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.88
1.12
Al Bataeh xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajman vs Al Bataeh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Ajman and 1.12 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 12D 12L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.12 PPG, Al Bataeh on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ajman's home form reads 4W 5D 7L across their last 16 home games, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 16 away games (7W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Bataeh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.59 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 72%.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Ajman (Home) vs Al Bataeh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajman
Early Season
Al Bataeh
Early Season
❓ Ajman vs Al Bataeh Form FAQs
What form are Ajman and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 8W 12D 12L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Bataeh's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.06 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 10 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ajman
3
Draws
1
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajman vs Al Bataeh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Bataeh?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajman have won 4, Al Bataeh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al Bataeh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 March 2026: Al Bataeh 1-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al Bataeh?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 50%, Al Bataeh 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Ajman and 75% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajman vs Al Bataeh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajman and Al Bataeh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ajman's games and 62% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ajman and Al Bataeh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Ajman's matches and 75% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Ajman and Al Bataeh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Ajman's recent matches and 81% of Al Bataeh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Al Bataeh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al Bataeh 2-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.77 xG and Al Bataeh 1.12 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.99 / defence 0.79 against Al Bataeh attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 51% | Draw 27% | Al Bataeh 22%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 56%, Al Bataeh 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.12 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.