Vorskla Poltava 2-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava host Ruh Lviv at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Premier League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.21 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.172 / defence 1.222 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.834 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 0.793 / away 1.144. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Vorskla Poltava games / 1 Ruh Lviv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 35%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Ruh Lviv 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.21 / Ruh Lviv 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.172 / def 1.222 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.834 / def 1.301 | league avg home 0.793 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ruh Lviv xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 37% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
37%
2.69
28%
3.60
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.38
1.17
Ruh Lviv xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.17 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vorskla Poltava have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Ruh Lviv in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
4
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Ruh Lviv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 100% of Ruh Lviv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 100% of Ruh Lviv's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Ruh Lviv 2-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.21 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.17 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ruh Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.17 / defence 1.22 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 35%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 100%, Ruh Lviv 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Vorskla Poltava conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.