Vorskla Poltava 4-1 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Lviv to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Lviv have recorded 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.41 xG and Lviv 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.177 / defence 1.050 | Lviv attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.357. Data: 2 Vorskla Poltava games / 2 Lviv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 42% | Draw 26% | Lviv 32%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Lviv 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 42% | Draw 26% | Lviv 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.41 / Lviv 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.177 / def 1.050 | Lviv attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lviv xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Vorskla Poltava 4 - 1 Lviv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 42% chance of winning, Lviv a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Lviv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W. Lviv (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Lviv's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
42%
2.41
26%
3.83
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.62
1.21
Lviv xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.21 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vorskla Poltava's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Lviv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Lviv have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Vorskla Poltava or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Lviv in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vorskla Poltava and Lviv runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vorskla Poltava have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2021, when Vorskla Poltava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Lviv specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Lviv?
From 4 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Lviv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when Lviv 0-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Lviv?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 50% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 50% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Lviv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lviv in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vorskla Poltava run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Lviv 4-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.41 xG and Lviv 1.21 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.18 / defence 1.05 against Lviv attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 42% | Draw 26% | Lviv 32%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Lviv 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Vorskla Poltava scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lviv shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.