Vorskla Poltava 0-3 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Vorskla Poltava (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vorskla Poltava face Inhulets.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets meet at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inhulets have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Vorskla Poltava. A 0.60 PPG lead over Inhulets (0.90 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Vorskla Poltava have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Inhulets managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
The historical record gives Vorskla Poltava a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (14 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Inhulets — key trading statistics (14 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 36% versus Inhulets 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 36% | Inhulets 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.73 xG and Inhulets 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.900 / defence 1.017 | Inhulets attack 0.705 / defence 1.596. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.005. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.596 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Vorskla Poltava games / 14 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 61% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 15%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Inhulets 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Vorskla Poltava (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 30% | Inhulets 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 61% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.73 / Inhulets 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.900 / def 1.017 | Inhulets attack 0.705 / def 1.596 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Inhulets xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 3 Inhulets.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 61% chance of winning, Inhulets a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
Record (3 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 3W | Draws 0 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Inhulets (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (0.90) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.70x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.08
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.45
0.72
Inhulets xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
3%
38.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.72 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 4W 4D 6L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inhulets's form line: 0W 6D 8L from 14 games, 0.43 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Inhulets have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.64 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 6D 8L in their last 14 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Inhulets away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.40 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Inhulets in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
From 5 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Inhulets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Inhulets 1-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Vorskla Poltava) and 40% (Inhulets) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Vorskla Poltava) and 60% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 60% of games; Inhulets in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 40% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 60% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inhulets run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Vorskla Poltava 0-3 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.73 xG and Inhulets 0.72 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Inhulets outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Inhulets attack 0.70 / defence 1.60, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 61% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 15%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Inhulets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 36%, Inhulets 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inhulets's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.43. Form was overturned, with Inhulets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inhulets (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.