Veres Rivne 3-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Veres Rivne welcome Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to Avanhard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne at Avanhard this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Avanhard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Veres Rivne) versus 1.10 (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Veres Rivne's 30% rate and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Veres Rivne, 0 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with Veres Rivne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Veres Rivne 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.34 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.878 / defence 1.009 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.684 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.244. Data: 55 Veres Rivne games / 25 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 47% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.35. Veres Rivne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 30% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 47% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Veres Rivne 1.34 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.878 / def 1.009 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.684 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Veres Rivne 3 - 3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 47% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (3 meetings): Veres Rivne 2W | Draws 1 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.88) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.42
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.20
0.86
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.86 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Veres Rivne have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 7W 9D 10L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form line: 7W 5D 14L from 26 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 1.15 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Veres Rivne have posted 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
On the road, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 4W 1D 7L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.15 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.25 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
3
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 5 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Veres Rivne 25% BTTS, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Veres Rivne) and 50% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 50% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 25% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi finished level at 3-3 at Avanhard, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.34 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.86 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 47% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 31%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.15 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.