Ruh Lviv 2-2 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar meet at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 6D 1L at Arena Lviv — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Obolon'-Brovar — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 67% versus Obolon'-Brovar 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 42% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.22 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.868 / defence 0.867 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.647 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.168. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Ruh Lviv games / 12 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 49% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 19%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Obolon'-Brovar 5.26. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Obolon'-Brovar's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 50% | Obolon'-Brovar 17% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 49% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.22 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.868 / def 0.867 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.647 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Obolon'-Brovar xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 2 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 49% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.65x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
49%
2.05
32%
3.09
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.88
0.66
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.66 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 5W 5D 2L from 12 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 6L across 12 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 0W 5D 1L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 2W 0D 4L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.67 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Obolon'-Brovar in 25%.
Defensively: Obolon'-Brovar in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 5W 5D 2L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Obolon'-Brovar's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 0.83 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Obolon'-Brovar have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 0-4 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
3
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Obolon'-Brovar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Ruh Lviv) and 17% (Obolon'-Brovar) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Ruh Lviv and 33% for Obolon'-Brovar.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 50% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 17% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 13, as Ruh Lviv and Obolon'-Brovar drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.22 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.66 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.87 / defence 0.87 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.65 / defence 1.26, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 49% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 19%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 42%, Obolon'-Brovar 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.