Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Ruh Lviv welcome Inhulets to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv at Arena L'viv this season: 3W 4D 1L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inhulets have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Ruh Lviv) versus 0.60 (Inhulets). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Inhulets trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 41% versus Inhulets 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 24% | Inhulets 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.25 xG and Inhulets 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.889 / defence 1.041 | Inhulets attack 0.750 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.223. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Ruh Lviv games / 17 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 28%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Inhulets 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 38% | Inhulets 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.25 / Inhulets 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.889 / def 1.041 | Inhulets attack 0.750 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Inhulets xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Arena L'viv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 43% chance of winning, Inhulets a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Inhulets in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.89x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.49
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.21
0.96
Inhulets xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.96 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 6D 7L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inhulets's form line: 3W 4D 10L from 17 games, 0.76 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.06 PPG, Inhulets on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Ruh Lviv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Inhulets have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.76 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Inhulets away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.62 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ruh Lviv have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2024, when Ruh Lviv won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets?
From 4 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 3, Inhulets have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Inhulets?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 38%, Inhulets 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ruh Lviv) and 50% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games; Inhulets in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Inhulets tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 26, as Ruh Lviv and Inhulets drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.25 xG and Inhulets 0.96 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Inhulets landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Inhulets attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 28%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 24%, Inhulets 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.06 PPG, Inhulets 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.