Ruh Lviv 2-3 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv host Dnipro-1 at Stadion Ukrajina in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Ukrajina, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dnipro-1 have recorded 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dnipro-1 away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 2.10 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Dnipro-1 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Dnipro-1 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 44% versus Dnipro-1 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 35% | Dnipro-1 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.92 xG and Dnipro-1 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.018 / defence 0.955 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.335 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.230. Dnipro-1's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Dnipro-1 have an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Ruh Lviv games / 23 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 22% | Draw 26% | Dnipro-1 52%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Dnipro-1 1.92. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 40% | Dnipro-1 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Ukrajina • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 22% | Draw 26% | Dnipro-1 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.92 / Dnipro-1 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.018 / def 0.955 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.335 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Dnipro-1 xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadion Ukrajina.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 3 Dnipro-1.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukrajina.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 22% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
22%
4.63
26%
3.83
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.48
1.57
Dnipro-1 xG
4.63
22%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
22.21
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.57 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 5W 7D 11L from 23 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 18W 1D 4L across 23 games — 2.39 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 4W 4D 3L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Ruh Lviv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 7W 1D 3L across 11 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.13 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Dnipro-1
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 18W 1D 4L in their last 23 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.45 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Dnipro-1 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 46%, Dnipro-1 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ruh Lviv) and 64% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 54%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 27% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 64% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Ruh Lviv 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Ruh Lviv 2-3 at Stadion Ukrajina, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.92 xG and Dnipro-1 1.57 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ruh Lviv beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dnipro-1 outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.33 / defence 0.73, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 22% | Draw 26% | Dnipro-1 52%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 35%, Dnipro-1 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.