Oleksandria 1-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host FC Kharkiv at CSC Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria's home record at CSC Nika: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 1.30 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Oleksandria, 0 for FC Kharkiv and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 61% versus FC Kharkiv 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 48% | FC Kharkiv 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.19 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.046 / defence 0.964 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.834 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.273. Data: 31 Oleksandria games / 31 FC Kharkiv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 40% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 31%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | FC Kharkiv 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 60% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 40% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Oleksandria 1.19 / FC Kharkiv 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.046 / def 0.964 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.834 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 40% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
Record (3 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.46
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.21
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.02 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 11W 14D 6L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 6W 14D 11L from 31 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Kharkiv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 9D 4L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.77 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; FC Kharkiv in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 11W 14D 6L in their last 31 games (1.52 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 14D 11L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 60%, FC Kharkiv 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Oleksandria) and 27% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 47%; FC Kharkiv in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Oleksandria's recent games and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out FC Kharkiv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat FC Kharkiv 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.19 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 40% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 31%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, FC Kharkiv 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.