Oleksandria 1-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CSC Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at CSC Nika this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at CSC Nika. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Oleksandria are significantly better at CSC Nika than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Oleksandria's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of LNZ Cherkasy's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Oleksandria, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Oleksandria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 39% versus LNZ Cherkasy 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 48% | LNZ Cherkasy 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 2.18 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.208 / defence 0.688 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.934 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.013. LNZ Cherkasy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Oleksandria's defence rating of 0.688 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Oleksandria games / 46 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 71% | Draw 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 9%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.41 | Draw 5.00 | LNZ Cherkasy 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Oleksandria (71%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 71% | Draw 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 44% | xG Oleksandria 2.18 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.208 / def 0.688 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.934 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.65
LNZ Cherkasy xG
44%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Oleksandria 1 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 71% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (3 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 1 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (1.21) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.93x) against Oleksandria's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
71%
1.40
20%
4.97
9%
11.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.83
0.65
LNZ Cherkasy xG
1.40
71%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
11.70
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
11%
8.81
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
1%
103.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.65 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oleksandria come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 14D 13L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.28 PPG from 46 outings (16W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.28 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Oleksandria's home form reads 11W 6D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.04 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 19W 14D 13L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.70 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 39%, LNZ Cherkasy 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Oleksandria) and 44% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Oleksandria have failed to score in 26% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 52% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Oleksandria's recent games and 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 17, as Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 2.18 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.65 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.21 / defence 0.69 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.93 / defence 1.41, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 71% | Draw 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 9%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, LNZ Cherkasy 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.54 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.