Oleksandria 4-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to KSK Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oleksandria have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at KSK Nika this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kolos Kovalivka's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Oleksandria, 1.80 for Kolos Kovalivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oleksandria lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Oleksandria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Kolos Kovalivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 50% versus Kolos Kovalivka 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 46% | Kolos Kovalivka 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.78 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.162 / defence 0.924 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.735 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.217. Kolos Kovalivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Oleksandria games / 27 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 60% | Draw 23% | Kolos Kovalivka 17%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Kolos Kovalivka 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Oleksandria (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 50% | Kolos Kovalivka 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 60% | Draw 23% | Kolos Kovalivka 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Oleksandria 1.78 / Kolos Kovalivka 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.162 / def 0.924 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.735 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Kolos Kovalivka xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Oleksandria 4 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 60% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 0 | Kolos Kovalivka 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (1.16) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (0.73x) against Oleksandria's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.35
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.60
0.83
Kolos Kovalivka xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
3%
34.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.83 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 12W 7D 7L from 26 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 10L across 26 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.46 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 6W 0D 4L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 3W 2D 5L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.85 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Kolos Kovalivka in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 games (1.65 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 11W 5D 10L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.80 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 4-1 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 5, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Oleksandria 0-3 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Oleksandria) and 20% (Kolos Kovalivka) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Oleksandria) and 20% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 20% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Oleksandria's recent games and 20% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kolos Kovalivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Kolos Kovalivka 4-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.78 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.83 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 60% | Draw 23% | Kolos Kovalivka 17%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Kolos Kovalivka 23%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (26 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (26 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.65 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.