Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Veres Rivne travel to Obolon Arena to take on Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Monday 4 November 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Obolon'-Brovar at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Obolon'-Brovar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Veres Rivne — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Veres Rivne's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Veres Rivne's 1.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Obolon'-Brovar's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, Veres Rivne 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Obolon'-Brovar 0–3 Veres Rivne — a Veres Rivne win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (last 43 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Veres Rivne trading profile (last 43 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 30% versus Veres Rivne 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 37% | Veres Rivne 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Obolon'-Brovar surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Veres Rivne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.855 / defence 1.434 | Veres Rivne attack 0.970 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.104. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.434 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Veres Rivne's projected output up. Data: built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 41 games and Veres Rivne's last 41.
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 26% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.90 | Draw 3.74 | Veres Rivne 2.10. Veres Rivne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Obolon'-Brovar 30% (last 10 home games) | Veres Rivne 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Monday 4 November 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 26% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.06 / Veres Rivne 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.855 / def 1.434 | Veres Rivne attack 0.970 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Veres Rivne xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Monday 4 November 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 26% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.85) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 41 games and Veres Rivne's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
26%
3.90
27%
3.74
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.60
1.54
Veres Rivne xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
6%
18.14
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.54 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 43 games, going 7W 14D 22L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.00 PPG from 43 outings (9W 16D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 0.81 PPG, Veres Rivne on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across their last 19 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 19 away games (3W 6D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.09 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 60%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 7W 14D 22L in their last 43 games (0.81 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 9W 16D 18L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Veres Rivne away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.11 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2024, when Veres Rivne won Veres Rivne 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Obolon'-Brovar
3
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Obolon'-Brovar 2-0 Veres Rivne.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 32%, Veres Rivne 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Obolon'-Brovar and 32% for Veres Rivne.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 47% of games; Veres Rivne in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 47% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 32% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 68% of Veres Rivne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Obolon'-Brovar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 12, as Obolon'-Brovar and Veres Rivne drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 1.54 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.85 / defence 1.43 against Veres Rivne attack 0.97 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 26% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 37%, Veres Rivne 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (43 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (43 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.