Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Obolon'-Brovar face Polessya.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Polessya make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 11:00 UK time.
Form
Obolon'-Brovar (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Polessya have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Polessya's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Obolon'-Brovar, 1.00 for Polessya — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Polessya edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Obolon'-Brovar 0–4 Polessya — a Polessya win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Obolon'-Brovar — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Polessya — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 29% versus Polessya 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 33% | Polessya 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Obolon'-Brovar surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Polessya have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.94 xG and Polessya 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.828 / defence 1.039 | Polessya attack 1.063 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.019. Data: built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 48 games and Polessya's last 48.
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Draw 30% | Polessya 40%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.32 | Draw 3.32 | Polessya 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Polessya are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Obolon'-Brovar 30% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Draw 30% | Polessya 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.94 / Polessya 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.828 / def 1.039 | Polessya attack 1.063 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Polessya (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Polessya xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya FAQs
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 0 Polessya.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 30% chance of winning, Polessya a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.83) and Polessya's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (1.06x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 48 games and Polessya's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
30%
3.32
30%
3.32
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.06
1.12
Polessya xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.3 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.12 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 10W 16D 22L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Polessya's form line: 22W 14D 12L from 48 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Polessya are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Obolon'-Brovar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 1.13 PPG from their last 23 home games (6W 8D 9L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 11W 5D 7L from their last 23 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.33 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Polessya
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 10W 16D 22L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Polessya have gone 22W 14D 12L in their last 48 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.13 PPG; Polessya away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Polessya in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Polessya have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Polessya won Polessya 4-0 Obolon'-Brovar on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
1
Draws
5
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Polessya have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Polessya 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 26% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 44% (Polessya) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 48% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Polessya in 39%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 52% of games; Polessya in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 44% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 48% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 65% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Obolon'-Brovar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.94 xG and Polessya 1.12 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Polessya landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Polessya attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Draw 30% | Polessya 40%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 33%, Polessya 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.