Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Obolon'-Brovar versus Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Obolon'-Brovar's home record at : 1W 6D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Livyi Bereh (all games): 1W 4D 0L across 5 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Livyi Bereh are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Obolon'-Brovar 2W, Livyi Bereh 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Obolon'-Brovar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Obolon'-Brovar 0% | Livyi Bereh 60%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 20% | Livyi Bereh 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.24 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.987 / defence 1.067 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.814 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Data: 33 Obolon'-Brovar games / 3 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 41% | Draw 31% | Livyi Bereh 27%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Livyi Bereh 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Obolon'-Brovar dominate the H2H record, yet Livyi Bereh are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Livyi Bereh (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Obolon'-Brovar 50% | Livyi Bereh 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 41% | Draw 31% | Livyi Bereh 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.24 / Livyi Bereh 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.987 / def 1.067 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.814 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Livyi Bereh xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 41% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh?
Record (4 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 2W | Draws 2 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-4D-0L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.99) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.81x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
41%
2.41
31%
3.19
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.20
0.96
Livyi Bereh xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 0.96 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 3D 2L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Livyi Bereh sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Livyi Bereh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Livyi Bereh in 60%.
Defensively: Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Livyi Bereh in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 4D 0L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Obolon'-Brovar
2
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh?
From 4 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Obolon'-Brovar tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 60% (Livyi Bereh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Obolon'-Brovar and 0% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 40%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 60% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 0% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.