FC Kharkiv 0-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova plays host to FC Kharkiv versus Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Thursday 4 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Kharkiv have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for FC Kharkiv, 0.70 for Ruh Lviv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 35% versus Ruh Lviv 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 42% | Ruh Lviv 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.11 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.726 / defence 1.408 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.838 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.222. FC Kharkiv's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 FC Kharkiv games / 40 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 29% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Ruh Lviv 2.22. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 40% | Ruh Lviv 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova • Kick-off: Thursday 4 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 29% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.11 / Ruh Lviv 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.726 / def 1.408 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.838 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Ruh Lviv xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 4 May 2023 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 29% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv?
Record (3 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 1 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.73) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.84x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
29%
3.43
26%
3.81
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.55
1.44
Ruh Lviv xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.48
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.44 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 10W 12D 18L from 40 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 18L across 40 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 0.95 for Ruh Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 6W 3D 9L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 3W 4D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.98 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 12D 18L in their last 40 games (1.05 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Ruh Lviv away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.17 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.72 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 1-4 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Kharkiv
3
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 39%, Ruh Lviv 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC Kharkiv) and 39% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 44% of games; Ruh Lviv in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 44% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 39% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, Regular Season - 24, as FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.11 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.44 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ruh Lviv landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.73 / defence 1.41 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 29% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 45%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 42%, Ruh Lviv 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.05 PPG, Ruh Lviv 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.