FC Kharkiv 1-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Livyi Bereh make the trip to Stadion Livyi Bereh to face FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 June 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Kharkiv have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's home record at Stadion Livyi Bereh: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Livyi Bereh's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Livyi Bereh away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward FC Kharkiv. A 0.70 PPG lead over Livyi Bereh (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for Livyi Bereh and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Livyi Bereh half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 62% versus Livyi Bereh 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 53% | Livyi Bereh 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.61 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.020 / defence 1.020 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.619 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.010. Livyi Bereh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 FC Kharkiv games / 30 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 59% | Draw 28% | Livyi Bereh 13%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 1.69 | Draw 3.57 | Livyi Bereh 7.69. The model has a clear lean to FC Kharkiv (59%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 90% | Livyi Bereh 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 59% | Draw 28% | Livyi Bereh 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 39% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.61 / Livyi Bereh 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.020 / def 1.020 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.619 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Livyi Bereh xG
39%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 59% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 13% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh?
Record (2 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 1 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Livyi Bereh's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.62x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
59%
1.69
28%
3.59
13%
7.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.25
0.64
Livyi Bereh xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
7.80
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
3%
39.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.64 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 6W 9D 17L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Livyi Bereh's form line: 8W 5D 19L from 32 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 0.91 for Livyi Bereh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 2D 10L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.66 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Kharkiv have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Livyi Bereh in 22%.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 9D 17L in their last 32 games (0.84 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 8W 5D 19L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Livyi Bereh away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.13 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Kharkiv have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 80%, Livyi Bereh 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Kharkiv) and 33% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 33% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Livyi Bereh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Livyi Bereh 1-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.61 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.64 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.62 / defence 1.38, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 59% | Draw 28% | Livyi Bereh 13%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 53%, Livyi Bereh 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 0.84 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.